Join the LIVE running blog of tonight's game!

We're making blog history tonight on the 'Chair! (www.ArmchairGM.com - All Sports, All You)

Manny Stiles is at the stadium, in the press box. You're watching it at home on ESPN. Anyone can comment early, often. Just make semi-insightful comments please! (no emephing profanities, ya seeyessers)



This isn't a Stiles-only event, JOIN IN! This is for everyone... yes, even Yankee fans. See? We all enjoy.




New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Devil Rays, tonight on ESPN and www.ArmchairGM.com

Damn I hate having to "act professional". As a credentialled media member, I can't root aloud from the press box. This is also the first time I'm seeing the Yankees in person and I'm NOT allowed to boo, either! Son of a... They've put up with my "yeahs", "oohs" and one raucous "You don't run on Delmon! You're toast" when Kelly Shoppach got gunned at the plate on Saturday.




But alas!!! I 'can' scream my head off on-line! And I will! Go Devil Rays! "Yankees Suck! Year 2000! Pinstripes are for *expletives*! All Yankees fans born after 1920 are bandwagon jumpers!" etc and so on!!! Woooo! (I feel better already)


click here to continue on ArmchairGM.com and please join in with the discussion!!!

Stiles in Tampa - Day ONE

Well, it has been quite a freeking long day. In fact, it's been two long days. I took a red eye flight out of Phoenix and lost three hours, got basically zero sleep (even though I tried to beer and margarita myself into a slumber for the flight - to NO avail) and got into Tampa at 8:30 this morning... jet lagged and hungover. It's almost midnight now and I didn't even have any caffeine today! needless to say I am buzzing off my first day at the Trop.

Arriving at the stadium
I arrived at Tropicana Field around 3:30pm (10 minutes before the media gates opened) for the first game of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Cleveland Indians series (gametime 7:10). Me and my Unnamed Local Source (brother that lives in Tampa) met up with the Rays' Public Relations wizard Rick Vaughn. If you didn't know, the Rays don't charge for parking. It's FREE!

"R.V." (as he's affectionately known - although I'm sure he's received a nauseating amount of "Wild Thing" references over the years) took me and U.L.S. (Unnamed Local Source) on the stadium tour; in and out, up and down, and basically every new feature, amenity and upgrade. We started out in the locker room. It was still early so only a handful of players were mulling around (hey, there's Aki! Look, it's Kaz! There's my boy Delmon Young!) And... so on! More so, it was "there's Marc Lancaster" or "hey, it's Marc Topkin" (the local Rays beat writers that did interviews with me last month)

I wasn't nervous or star struck by the players. After all, the players look SO young (maybe I'm just getting old) and many of the guys are not as big as I thought they'd be (maybe I'm just getting fat). I was a little giddy when I saw Don Zimmer! Mostly, I avoided the urge to pester every/anyone within shouting distance and just enjoyed the initial experience and took it in.


Inside Tropicana Field
Let me tell you some wise advice. Don't listen to anyone who says the Trop is a crappy stadium. It's not the Taj Mahal and it just looks a little weird with the tilted roof, but the stadium (even though it's a neccessarily evil dome) was better than several I have been to... and that was just my initial reaction.

R.V. showed myself and U.L.S. all of the new additions like the kids play zones and the (FREE) kids video game lounge (they even had RBI Baseball on huge plasma screens - very sweet). There is a baseball trivia game show set that you can go up against other competitors in a battle of useless knowledge (with real buzzers and scorekeeping podiums). You can go to a game, get a custom bat made, have baseball cards of yourself printed up and then go pet the dozen and a half or so rays swimming in the Ray Tank in centerfield (WAY cooler than the pool at Chase Field that no one uses). Yes, real, live actual, water-breathing fish, related to sharks and known as "rays" (No Mantas, a.k.a. "devil ray" though, just 'little' ones) You can even pet them!

Did I mention the Ted Williams' Hitters Hall of Fame? Yeah, it's been there for a couple of years, but it was expanded to over 10,000 square feet this past offseason (from under 3,000 sq ft). I didn't get to go in today, but I'll see it for sure (Is Pete Rose anywhere in there?). Oh yeah, it's free too.

The Tampa area has a long history in baseball. Long a Spring training site for MLB teams, there has also been several "professional" teams here through the decades as well; there is certainly a rich heritage of baseball in Western Florida. A wing of the concourse is covered in murals depicting the historical greats of the area (a 30ft painting of Joe D and Marilyn, for instance).

The Rays have embraced the history of the area (even if it IS Yankee-drenched), they have appealed to the younger fans and it seems like their promotions department has a staff of hundreds of people. The Rays have connections with seemingly everything in the area.

Every section of the stadium has it's own unique theme and feel. They even have a street stickball area made to look like your playing on the streets of new York (graffiti and all!) Another area is painted to resemble the flavor of a local historical Spanish neighborhood. There are tons of shops and a great array of food and beverages.

About the only complaint I have: The bathrooms are clean and servicable.. they aren't knock your socks off, but they work. There is an area on the concourse where three bathrooms are all within sight of each other but they're all women's bathrooms, and the Men's bathrooms are sparsely scattered enough, so that was a tad confusing (of course, with my media creds, I didn't use the public bathroom anyway)

All in all, the stadium is better than everyone says (which is exactly what I expected)

Batting Practice
So after the grand tour and intros, we ventured down to the field. They installed a new surface called FieldTurf II and it is very nice. I wish I had my whole yard covered in it.

The Rays players were taking BP and fielding fungoes and we just stood there at the dugout and watched along with the media and other onlookers.

Hey, there's Don Zimmer, there's Fred McGriff, who is that guy? Is that? It is! Carl Everett was there too, hanging with the Rays players and looking well over his old playing weight. No Jose Canseco sightings though... (darn sarcasm)

Then as BP was wrapping up, Coach Joe Maddon held his pre-game "press session" (I don't know the 'official name' of the event) and answered questions from the media members. They were grilling him about how he uses his pitchers, why he chose the lineup he did, blah blah blah, all the while crowding around him like too many piglets fighting to suck on the sow's last open teet, jamming recorders and microphones in his face (to see it happen was a tad disturbing).

I played along and followed the flock, pretending I knew what I was doing. The writers slowly got their sound bites and quotes and filtered away to the media chow hall (more on that later). Then it was just me left and Coach Maddon. So I introduced myself, you knw... that "charity blogger guy" etc... THEN, I pulled the ole' "those guys asked all the questions I wanted to ask" joke and then slammed him with the heavy hitter...

"so... um... What did you do on your day off yesterday?"

Yup, I went right for it. Damn that Manny Stiles! Asking those gritty, gutcheck questions like a heartless sniper. Coach said he "took his girlfriend's parents to the airport in the morning, rode his bike some, read a book then was in and out of naptime while West Side Story was on TV." He likes to keep his mind and body in shape - for his "young girlfriend"...

Yep, Manny goes the extra mile for this kind of insight so you can enjoy it too.

Then we chatted about nothing particular, batting pactice wrapped up and we headed up to the press box.

The Press Box
Pretty damned good seats, those press boxes. Straight behind home, up just enough to see it all. There's a counter full of stat sheets galore, media notes and more mass reproduced statistical information than you could ever possibly imagine - Did you know, that Cesar Cedeno is the only player in MLB history to have more combined HRs and SBs before age 25 than Carl Crawford's 203 combined Hrs and SBs? And so on...

Then there's the food. Get proper credentials and $6, go to the pregame spread and you can eat all you want! I had the beer-battered cod and chicken marsala (one of my favorites!) along with heaping portions of vegetable based side dishes. Honestly, it wasn't bad at all. I enjoyed it thoroughly! Of course, I am also a guy that enjoys TV dinners, institutional food and freeze dried survival foods from the bomb shelter era (basically any food that isn't completely rotten and/or feces covered)

I saw my old buddy Crime Dog in the food trough and told him "I don't want to make you feel old, but I met you at a baseball card show in 1988" etc. and so forth. We yapped and let me tell you; if there's a nicer, more down to earth person than Fred McGriff... no, it's just not possible. McGriff is always smiling and is still just as chill as he was almost 20 years ago (I AM getting old). There's a whole article on McGriff coming sometime this season. Enough segue, back to the previous train of thought:

You know the old line about sports writers all being pot-bellied, balding or messily coifed and having mustard stains on all of their shirts?

Not completely true.

They are also miserable and hate their lives as well... or at least it seemed that way to me.

So in the press box, there are writers and correspondants, about a half dozen Japanese reporters, a guy sitting next to me on the left with possibly the worst breath ever and my douche bag U.L.S on my right wearing a Rays hat (with a Joe Maddon signature he acquired in Spring training). Double D'oh! Showing team preference is a no-no (I doubt some writers even like the team they cover anyway).

In the press box, not only does no one cheer, root or express any emotion; they barely even talk with each other. It's like a library for the noiseless overlooking of a sporting arena. It's just so unnatural to watch a baseball game and not become involved with it (for me at least) Of course, I broke the "unwritten rules" several times with a uncontrolled yelp of a "yeah!" or a pleasingly muttered "nice..." and I even went into my bag of magik phrases and peppered a few "come on!"s in there too. They might have to detach my vocal chords and supress my willingness to enjoy myself before tomorrow night's game!

But I do have to say, the Rays take care of their press contingency pretty well. Not that I have much to compare it to; I was comfortable, I was given assistance at every ponderment (one of the management's mottos - R.A.Y.S. - Ready At Your Service) and I had access to enough statistical information that I can understand where the creativity goes in the journalism game. They practically do the 'work' for you, you just gotta mad-lib and paint by number it all together and WHAMMO, a column before tomorrow's deadline, it seems...

Don't get me wrong. I'm not ripping the guys (and the three or so female journalists), it's just VERY easy to stereotypicalize baseball writers. Clearly there are some who stand out above the others and it's not hard to tell who is good and who is run of the mill... yes, there are some good reporters. They ask questions that require answers deeper than "Duh!"

Then again, maybe 'the grass is greener', who am I kidding? Some of them are just worn down by the glorious past nine years that they can't enjoy the here and now turning into a bright future.

The Actual Game
Myself and U.L.S. (who oddly enough was a self-proclaimed die-hard Yankee fan until last month) sat in the press box and watched the game.

It was a good game. C.C. Sabathia was masterful. B.J. Upton mashed a solo shot off him to deep center in the third inning, but he was otherwise handling things well. He was changing speeds and painting the black but the Rays chipped away and chipped away and finally got to him in the 7th when Delmon Young stole third and Victor Martinez threw the ball into leftfield allowing Young to tie the score at 3-3. Even though there was a paying crowd just under 13,400 and half of them left by the 7th inning stretch, it was actually LOUD when the Rays were threatening. Early in the game I was unimpressed by the Friday night crowd, but when th game got exciting, they showed up big time.

Then after the end of the 8th, Mrs. Stiles called to tell me the score was tied (I had a sneaking suspicion it was, being AT the game and all) and asked "how are my boys doing?"... OK, I'll say it... it's all her fault! (They're not pinning this loss on the supposed "Manny Stiles Curse")

Here's the box score.
The Indians won on a smash hit from Pronk in the top of the 9th inning. Yeah, he had a nice 3-3, HR, 3 rbi with 2 walks kind of game. If you didn't know already... Hafner is what they call very good. Coach Madden said in his postgame remarks that he hopes "Hafner gets called up to the higher league that he belongs in" before tomorrow's game. I agreed.

So the game was over, us media folk sauntered down to the lockerroom and enjoyed the Coach Maddon post-game questioning (lasted all of maybe 4 questions) then again, the other media guys vanished and it was me and Coach again. This time I asked him some other innocuous questions as well as some good ones. We got into talking about how he is a Cardinals fan... yeah Arizona Cardinals fan! He's been a Cardinals fan since the early 60's (he played a little QB in college at Lafayette) and still is even though they moved to the desert and sucked mightily for 19 of th last 20 seasons... I'm begining to like Joe more and more...

Well, I figured I already wasted enough of the man's precious time and we waited in the clubhouse. A few reporters were asking spot questions to whoever had their junk covered and I complimented Elijah Dukes on his prolific tattoo work. He says he wants to get more (I'm familiar with that sentiment). I got the feeling he didn't enjoy not playing tonight, so I stopped wasting his precious time as well. Yes, he is a thick dude.

Delmon Young was hard at work in the batting cage just about as soon as the game ended. Coach Maddon said Delmon "has his head in the game at every moment" and from what I saw of him, he is a pretty upbeat, positive guy. I stand by my original assessment.

It was pretty sad hanging in the clubhouse after a tough loss. So I told R.V. we'd see him tomorrow and we left.

I never did meet up with my services procurer, Team President Matt Silverman. I guess he just has more important things to do... go figure!

All in all, tonight was fun... even with the tough loss. Tomorrow, I'm working! Expect a better, meatier post tomorrow night! I'm going to bed (and I'm still living on MST, not EDT)...

And don't forget! Monday, Monday, Monday! ONLY on http://www.ArmchairGM.com !!!

Manny Stiles' running blog of the Rays-Yankees game (on ESPN) during 10th Anniversary Cowbell giveaway night - first 10,000 in get a cowbell - I can't wait to hear it!

MORE cowbell than ever!!!

A Shameless Plug for ArmchairGM.com

Sometime later this year, I will complete a short film/mockumentary called ''Spelloids: A webbing pile of blog''

But already completed is the unneccessary hype:

Here is the 30 second promo:

Here is the FULL LENGTH (lightly controversial) promo:

Enjoy Spelloids:A webbing pile of blog (coming later 2007)

(weak disclaimer: views expressed in this film have nothing to do with anything credible, nor the Tampa Bay Devil Rays Baseball Club or MLB)

2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays Season Preview

I'm not going to one post per position, NO. Through the fine art of chicanery and a swathe of magic, ManRay has made it possible to slap the entire Tampa Bay Devil Rays preview into one, single post! Astounding, eh?

Manny Stiles presents... Your 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Yup, they're a REAL Major League Baseball team!

Let's take a look at what you're dealing with this season!

Manny Stiles – let’s get this business out of the way
As you most likely know, I am the guy who offered my services to ANY MLB team for the entire season for charity on ebay. The Devil Ray’s Team President Matt Silverman won the bid and made me a die-tough Devil Rays fan. Maybe even the ‘Most Unrealistically Hopeful Devil Rays fan’. Now, bear in mind… I’m currently (but maybe not much longer…) employed full-time as a stockbroker, I am the loving father of two beautiful children and a dedicated, faithful husband. Not to mention my “other stiles” – music and video production (at my in-home recording studio), exploring the spiritual realm (I’m also ordained and perform ceremonies) rooting for the Phoenix Suns in basketball, making the “World’s Best Fire Roasted Salsa”, amateur botany and other ‘life arts’; so it’s not like I have time to burn at the computer, I just do what I can (which is less than I am capable of due to my exceedingly ample laziness – Yes, I’m the busiest lazy ass in the biz).

Yeah, I’m a HUGE Devil Rays fan all of a sudden, but that doesn’t change who I am. You’re going to get random observations, in-depth fictional analysis and the tomfoolery and shenanigans you’re used to, but there will be times during the season when you’ll get legitimate journalism, quality player interviews and game reviews all with a twist of tomfoolery and shenanigans!

I will be meeting up with the team in several locations throughout the season, starting with a visit to St Petersburg THIS MONTH! I will be experiencing and reporting on the team from all aspects during a 3-game home stand versus the Cleveland Indians. Fun, fun!

Also, prepare yourselves adequately for the World’s Largest Running Game Blog (from the Trop!) on April 23, 2007, a nationally televised game on ESPN against the New York Yankees..

There will also be the matchup in June in my hometown of Phoenix that I will be attending, another ttrip to Florida in September and the possibility of me picking up a game or two at Anaheim (a mere 5 hour drive, so we’ll see).

Needless to say, it WILL be an exciting season and an incredible journey through 162 games.

Overview

This year's motto "It's MORE than just a game" is a bit perplexing but a motto nonetheless. I would have gone with "The Yankees Will Always Suck", "F U and the Red Sox too..." or "Let the AL East kiss our collective asses", but that's among the reasons why I'm not out there running a baseball team already. (Nor enjoying a career as a politician.)

It seems this will be the last season of the “Devil” Rays. The new ownership (more on them in a bit) wanted to exorcise the ‘Devil” and will be calling the team (most likely, nothing official) just the “Tampa Bay Rays” next season. Judging from the info you can find out there, they already got rid of the ‘Devil’. I don't think they care about the impact this will have on wiki-sites!

My guess is they will ignore my pleas and miniscule attempts to keep the ‘Devil’, go to something cooler or go out and ‘Win one for the Devil’ (see #60), but you can still VOTE for your moniker of favoritocity among other meanderful offerings.

New Ownership

You know, a lot of people live in the past too much. Get with the times, people! There’s NEW ownership in Western Florida and there’s a NEW, fresh way of approaching the game. 8+ years of aged veterans, flacid ticket sales and dreadful mis-management are a thing of the far, distant past and I’ll have NO MORE of that kind of talk. The Future is here AND still coming. The on-field and the off-field outlook is bright. Things are changing on the Gulf Coast and I’ll gladly whip the horses pulling this bandwagon. Hey, I guess it REALLY IS “More than just a game”!

Principle owner Stu Sternberg, one of the youngest owners in MLB is a former options trader, who was a partner of another trading firm then moved on to Goldman Sachs before retiring. He went from minority owner to majority owner of the “Worst Pro Sports Franchise in North America” in Fall 2005. Maybe it’s a news update to some, Vince Naimoli and his cheapskateness is long gone from the decision making process (rumors have surfaced that he may be brought back as an advisor. Calm down people, regardless of what happened AFTER, he’s the one who brought baseball to Tampa). Sternberg has the undeniable drive and love of baseball needed to succeed. He doesn’t seem afraid of making the business work and the product entertaining. He promises progressive thinking, bold changes and projects the team to win 50 games at home this year. He wants to move the past far, far behind what’s going on now.

He brought in Team President Matt Silverman, his former underling/protégé in the Mergers and Acquisitions Department at Goldman Sachs. Silverman is a Harvard grad. So to say that Stu and Matt have an idea of what works and what doesn’t in the business aspect would be a major understatement. These guys aren’t afraid to go “outside the box” or approach issues with forward thinking and fresh perspective. I would also say Silverman is a risk-taker (He brought me on board, for instance)

10th Anniversary

And a beautiful patch at that!

At least they didn't go all stupid with the word “anniversary” and smartly chose “10 Seasons”. WAAAAY back in 1998 the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Devil Rays joined the leagues and June 18th, 19th and 20th in Phoenix, Arizona they get to go head to head. Yes, I’ll be there taunting the locals (who are all from someplace else anyway)!

Infield

First Base
First looks like Ty Wigginton’s job by default. He’s got some decent pop and will be doing a lot of batting cleanup and he might see some time at second base or third base (fantasy alert, he’s eligible at all bases). Ty brings energy, hustle, grit and the closest thing to veteran leadership this team has. Wiggy will lead by example and will make sure the clubhouse is focused and that players get muddy and bloody in giving every ounce of effort.
Others who could don the big mitt: Greg Norton (currently on the 15 day DL) and who the hell knows who else? I guess ANY one!

Second Base
Well, Jorge Cantu is out and BJ Upton might have found a position, after all. In a somewhat surprising move, Cantu was sent to the minors and (of course) has demanded a trade. He was sent down in favor of Jonny Gomes. Everyone knew there was a logjam of bats in the outfield and a trade was imminent, but moving Cantu may have been the best option. He’s a middle infielder, has some value in a trade after topping 120 rbis just two years ago.

Upton is an interesting case. He was penciled in as a Chone Figgans-like role player this season. Drafted as the “Next Alex Rodriguez”, Upton finally has an opportunity to excel and dominate at a position that may make his many imminent All-Star appearances even easier to achieve (How many great second basemen are around?). He’s still young, still uber-talented and may even have a chance to “just play baseball” instead of dealing the convoluted and jarbled mess of his fielding prowess.

Upton can also play other positions and could even end up at third or outfield eventually. I think second is a nice fit for B.J. and for the team at this point. He’ll be backed up by Brendan Harris and Ty Wigginton on occasion. Maybe even Jorge Cantu will stick around, patiently work his way back/get an opportunity due to injury to the bigs.

Shortstop
Ben Zobrist won the job at short. He came to the Rays in the Aubrey Huff trade last season and has a slick glove. He’s no Kevin Stocker! B J Upton may see some time at short as well along with utility infielder Brendan Harris.

Third Base
Japanese Import Akinori Iwamura will get the call at third. With all the hype surrounding Dice-K and Kei Igawa in the AL East, Iwamura could be a pleasant surprise. He doesn’t come with the same pedigree as other Japanese imports, but once he settles to life in the Bigs, that could easily change. Ultimately, he may just be keeping 3rd warm for super-prospect Evan Longoria. Backing him up will be Upton, Wigginton and Harris.

Catcher
Another long-touted prospect, Dioner Navarro will get the majority of the workload behind the dish. He’s currently dealing with nagging injuries but looks a sure bet to start Opening Day with Josh Paul backing him up. Shawn Riggans and Raul Casanova are down in Durham ready to go if need be.

Outfield
If you read an article that talks about 'best outfields' that DOESN'T mention the Devil Rays, throw it away (if it's online, chuck your computer)

Leftfield
Baseball’s Most Exciting Player, Carl Crawford returns to patrol leftfield. At 25 years old, he needs 65 hits to become the franchise’s all-time hit leader. Crawford is always a threat to join the ultra-exclusive 20-20-20-20 club (20 each - 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs and SBs) Of course, there’s a lot of speculation that he is headed towards free agency. I think he’ll get locked up with a long-term deal sooner than later. He is the face of the franchise. Jonny Gomes might see some time in left as well, along with Rocco Baldelli and others.

Centerfield
New starting centerfielder Elijah Dukes will get to make his debut as a starter in Yankee Stadium. A legendary sign of things to come? Many people question his character, and for ‘’almost valid’’ reasons, but there’s no reason to question his ability. Dukes looked like a Monster and played like a Monster in Spring Training. Maybe there’s more to this kid than suspensions and Baby’s Mamas. Upton (there he is again) could see some time in CF as well as Rocco Baldelli.

Right Field
Tools, tools, tools. Delmon Young, the impending 2007 AL Rookie of the Year (you heard me, DiceDub) and future Hall of Famer will start in right, may see some DH time. Young is known for his patience at the plate like Manny Stiles is known for his avoidance of sarcasm. Young set one of the highest percentages of pitches swung at in baseball history last year. He swung at over 61% of pitches offered. I think he may surpass last year’s ONE walk (which probably came on a full count when he was distracted by a heckler, an umpire or a heckling umpire). He WILL learn plate patience as the season progresses and teams start to take note of his “dangerous” bat. Young also has the distinction of getting HBP in his first at-bat and hitting a HR for his first base hit. He will be backed up in the field on occasion by Jonny Gomes and/or Elijah Dukes

Designated Hitter
Looks like Rocco Baldelli will be the primary DH to start the season. He’s still nursing a tweaked right hammy.. I’m not sure if he’s being dangled as trade bait, if they’re trying to keep him from getting hurt in the field, or (most likely) Dukes really is THAT good. Whatever. Baldelli can hit and is nice insurance if someone in the outfield goes down to injury.

Jonny Gomes will also take his cuts from the DH role and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the other outfielders to DH as well as Wiggy and Upton on occasion.
Too many bats ‘’can’’ be a good thing!

Pitchers
Let’s be honest. Every team has a weakness. Since baseball is comprised of 90% pitching and defense and the other half is luck… The Devil Rays have a slight conundrum. The starters have promise and the bullpen has questions. So as one can comfortably surmise, the Rays will go as far as their pitching staff will take them. (Hush those “Uh-oh’s” right now!)

Starters
Scott Kazmir could be the next Steve Carlton. Not just because he’s a lefty, but because people think he’s the only starter on the staff capable of putting up wins and could take a run at Carton’s ’72 season where he won HALF of the teams games. Sorry, but Kazmir would have to win 40 or so games with THIS team to make that occur! Kazmir is dominant when healthy and should be a mainstay for years to come (and to rub in Mets fans’ faces). He needs 14 wins to become the franchise’s all time wins leader.

South Korean native Jae Seo who finished the season 1-8 with the Rays (during the atrocious 2006 second half debacle) isn’t going to be dominant, he’s been prone to the long ball and racking up losses, but he’ll eat innings. For a team that had exactly ZERO pitchers over 150innings last season, innings eaters are needed. He came over in the Julio Lugo trade from the Dodgers last year along with Dioner Navarro.

Jamie Shields is a big righty that showed a ton of promise as a rookie last year, showing good control 104-38 K/BB before succumbing to nagging injuries, and projects as a solid #2 pitcher for years to come.

Casey Fossum is yet another Devil Ray that spent a chunk of his career on the “Top Prospects” list. Unfortunately, he’ll never live up to the lofty expectations, but he’s a crafty veteran and a lefty to boot. The career WHIP loitering around 1.5 and career 2-1 K/BB isn’t going to frighten many, but one of these years he’ll put it all together, right?

Did I say this team is loaded with former “can’t miss” prospects? Remember when Edwin Jackson was considered untrade-able? Well, he’s the Rays’ fifth starter now. Yeah, you think he’s SO washed up right? Well, he’s a whopping 23 years old, so I think the projections aren’t out of reach quite yet… That being said, he ‘’was’’ out of options so maybe the insertion at starter was just a way of not outright releasing him? I hold hope. Sometimes guys like Jackson just need the opportunity to get on the hill and work. Here’s his chance!

Relievers
For the most part, I don’t have much to say about this group as I haven’t seen much of them.
Shawn Camp is solid enough to get 70-80 appearances, Ruddy Lugo is Julio’s lil’ bro, Juan Salas is not to be confused with Walter Johnson. Brian Stokes may close some games. Gary Glover and Al Reyes both made it into the ‘pen as a non-roster invitees.

Jae Kuk Ryu may be best known (if known at all?) for his ability to kill endangered birds with his accuracy, but also adds more depth and dimension to the relieving corps.

What's not clear (to me at least) is who the closer will be but it looks like we're gonna see the "bullpen by committee".

Former closer/flamethrower Seth McClung was also shocked (like Cantu) to be sent to the Minors.

In the Minors
There’s a stockpile of talent on the horizon! Tampa Bay has always been a team of highly touted prospects (Josh Hamilton, Toe Nash, Dewon Brazleton, etc) but the next wave has begun to pay dividends. ELEVEN players on the opening day roster were never on an opening day roster before!

The Devil Rays have SEVEN of Baseball America’s top 100 prospects for 2007, including Opening Day starters Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes. But along with the aforementioned Evan Longoria, there is also stud shortstop Reid Brignac, and pitchers Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jacob McGee on the slate as well.

Durham Bulls fans will also enjoy watching off and on Big Leaguers J.P. Howell, Seth McClung, Joel Guzman, Wes Bankston, Hee-Seop Choi, Dustan Mohr, Jason Grabowski and Carlos Pena. It remains to be seen what will happen with Jorge Cantu.

Coaching Staff
Manager
Joe Maddon came in to clean up the damage done by “Semi-Sweet” Lou Piniella. Piniella was a hard-assed hot head that spent too much time looking for Steve Lyons' wallet where Maddon is a positive energy, teamwork oriented kind of guy. His overuse of the pronoun-oriented catch phrase “we-us” may be corny to some, but it’s refreshing. Isn’t there enough negativity in pro sports already? I think he’s a good fit for a young team with a bright, hopeful future.

Coaches
Bill Evers – Bench Coach
George Hendrick – First Base Coach
Tom Foley – Third Base Coach
Jim Hickey – Pitching Coach
Steve Henderson – Hitting Coach
Bobby Ramos –Bullpen Coach
Don Zimmer – Senior Baseball Advisor
Dave Martinez – Special Assistant

Summary
Overall, the team is pretty right-handed (bats and arms). Maybe that’s not a bad thing in the AL East, but typically, balance goes a long way and provides options. The team is very young and clearly focusing on building their foundation and getting things headed in the right direction with anticipation for a prosperous future. It’s certainly not out of the realm of possibilities to envision the Rays as top contenders for years to come. But conventional wisdom says that won’t happen THIS year. Manny’s unrealistic hopefulness says “It’s not impossible”. Plenty of teams… OK, a few HAVE gone from worst to first. But those teams didn’t play in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox.

I still (assuredly) believe without a doubt that this IS a better than .500 team. Whether they surpass .500, we will see. But I’m betting/banking/counting on/guaranteeing this IS the squad that achieves the first +70 win season in franchise history.

Prognostications
Delmon Young – Rookie of the Year, also gets 100+ RBI
Scott Kazmir and Carl Crawford – AL ALL-Stars
Carl Crawford – 20-20-20-20 AND a +.300 AVG
Scott Kazmir 18+ wins, sub 3.60 ERA, 200+Ks (and Cy Young contention)
Wigginton, Crawford, Dukes, Young and Upton all to reach 20 homer plateau.
Rays win more than 50 games at home, just as Sternberg projects.

Final Record 86-76, 3rd place AL East (9 GB)

Go Devil Rays! And don’t forget to check out Devil Rays Universe often to follow the improbable tale of the Tampa Bay Rays and Manny Stiles’ new fanatical obsession that started for charity!
Less than a day until we start beating the crap out of the Yankees again!

Opening Day lineup:
LF Carl Crawford

SS Ben Zobrist

DH Rocco Baldelli

1B Ty Wigginton

RF Delmon Young

3B Akinori Iwamura

C Dioner Navarro

CF Elijah Dukes

2B BJ Upton

SP Scott Kazmir

The Voluminous Links-Story Of Stiles, Devil Rays Fan (catch up version)

So I've been writing alot of articles on this website called ArmchairGM.com "All Sports, All You"
Anyone can contribute, easy to do, so I go for it, right?

And I'm writing on there for a while (here's my ArmchairGM archives)

and I get this idea to sell my fanship and blogger abilities (I promised to write at least 50 articles) - on ebay for charity

The media picks up on it

Then the President of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays wins the bid. Yes, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are an actual real Major League Baseball team!

So I started : this site (The Yankees have their Empire, the Red Sox have their Nation, the Devil Rays have the Universe!!!) and also continue to contribute on ArmchairGM as well. I am going to Tampa in April to interview executive staff, players, anyone who will respond to my questions and hang out with the media so I can write about them as well!



Also check out my commercials!!! Unlike anything else you've seen.

basketball

more basketball

football

"Out of Shape"

after the first few, they made fun of my orange striped shorts

Spring Training

One of my radio interviews set to a slide show

And of course, there's MORE to come! Hit me up e-mail syles mannystiles@aol.com

Don't forget to vote for your Favorite Devil Ray! HERE!

Stiles takes on ALL comers - Topic: Delmon Young

When I finally get the opportunity to interview Delmon Young I'll ask him two simple questions:

1. "How many times have you been asked about it?"

2. "Can I get an invite to your Hall of Fame induction?"

I chose Delmon Young as my favorite Devil Ray for a very simple yet personal reason. I've been there... (in a sense).

Sure, I could've gone the easy route and chose The Most Exciting Player in Baseball or Steve Carlton II as my favorite Devil Ray player, but I chose to be a fan of Delmon as much as he inadvertently chose me to be his fan.

Let's back up a bit: You know sports, you know baseball and you know how to make your mind up about things, right? Well, I'm not so sure you do...

It's often been said that there's two types of people in sports - those who play sports and those who write about sports. In a truly Stiles fashion, I dance on, tightrope and straddle that fence often.

Well, I happen to think the WORLD is wrong about Delmon Young. The writers, the fantasy gurus, the sports guy on the local news channel, YOU included. And I'll tell you why.

Exhibit A
Everything you know is the same as nothing

Name everything you know about Delmon Young without mentioning the words "bat" or "umpire". Here, I'll help you:

He's Dmitri Young's little brother

He's a former #1 overall pick (2003 draft)

MAYBE you know he's an outfielder, or a right handed batter... maybe.

OK, given those things, HOW HOW HOW can you make an assessment of his character??
Now I'll let you use the words "bat" and "umpire" and suddenly he's a candidate to make the Cincinnati Bengals roster?

Exhibit B
the video

I've seen it more times than I've seen the Zapruder film. (it's close, anyway)

There's no footage of Delmon even LOOKING at the umpire when he threw the bat. The umpire did not make a move in ANY direction when the bat was flung. The catcher did not react in any manner, the pitcher did NOTHING. It was almost as if everyone was SO BARELY shocked/surprised that he threw the bat, they were rendered NOT afraid and went about their business as usual.

Young did not so much as scream, yell, rant or rave at the play.

He simply was called out on a pitch that clearly was NOT a strike. He disagreed with the call, probably called the ump a seeyesser and got run appropriately. Then he flung, threw, chucked, whatever-you-want-to-call-what-he-did-with-the-bat at the umpire, striking him.
Acceptable behavior? Absolutely not.

You never throw equipment. ack 100 years ago when I played organized baseball, I would always tell my teammates that "it wasn't the equipment's fault" or "don't blame the bat. It didn't strike out, you did".

So we agree this is unacceptable behavior from a professional athlete, but HOW HOW HOW does this one singular incident make Delmon Young a player with "character issues"?

He was suspended for 50 games. He paid the punishment... supposedly. He had LOTS of time to rehash a simple moment. He's thought about it more than I have, I know THAT much. He is going to be asked about and remembered for the incident for the rest of his career, most likely.
He did not get arrested, convicted or even charged with any crime except in the court of public opinion. I'm sorry, but there's SO MANY variables beyong the 28 seconds of video that aren't accounted for.

Now....


Can we all agree that this wasn't even CLOSE to the same vein as the Izzy Alcantara "incident"???

Exhibit C
He made a mistake in the heat of competition

Delmon IS guilty of being a multiple sport star athlete, having amazing physical tools and merely being "young". He lost his cool to the point where he tossed the bat, but WHAT else did he do? A mistake? Once again yes... BUT who doesn't make a mistake, an err in judgement, a decision with ill consequences in life?

I understand that the microscope of sports journalism is focused on pinpointing how horrible professional athletes are (even though there's a greater percentage of convicted criminals in our Congress), since controversy gets people talking and feel-good stories don't sell copy. But here's where "the two types of people in sports" (players and writers) show their discrepancies.

Exhibit D
Manny Stiles has "been there"

Once upon a time I was a pitcher for an adult summer-league baseball team. For one particular road game our team had just "signed" a pitcher of relative star quality who was going to start in place of me and I was bumped to the bullpen.

Well, the game started out and "new star pitcher" essentially got his tits ripped off and gave up 8 runs before getting yanked in the second inning. I came in the game in relief and got us out of a jam.

Then I went on to shut the other team down over the course of innings 2-8. Our team whittled the 8-0 lead away until the game was tied going into the bottom of the ninth. I poured my heart out. I pitched my ass off, I gave all I could. I reached deep within myself. All the cliches were in effect.

Now the game was on a Saturday and there was quite a turnout for such a meaningless baseball game. tehre was about 500-700 spectators and some were even trying to heckle me (I DO seem to get people talking). Emotions ran high, close plays were hotly contested.

The bottom of the ninth came around, I was still humming, in the groove, etc. I got the first out easily, got the second guy out on a K then went to work on the potential third out. He got on from an error by my second baseman and ended up on second.

The next guy up was pretty good, so I drilled him in the ribs to secure the force play at any base (I hated intentional walks but loved drilling dudes). So with two outs and men on first and second, my adrenaline RAGING from the moment, I took it to the next batter.

Being the 20 year old I was at the time, I just tried to blow it by him but he made contact! he dribbled a ball right back at me and with my poor follow through I was a bit out of position to field the ball cleanly and literally stuck a leg out to stop it. The ball hit my ankle and rolled foul, but obviously was still a fair ball, bases loaded.

We came all the way back from down 8 runs and here we were in the bottom of the ninth! The batter stepped in and all I wanted was an out. knew the guy at bat wasn't going to beat me. I went right at him, but I was wearing down. The batter took the count all the way to 3-2. Pitches were on the black and not getting called. The ump was squeezing me!

So on a full count, the batter took my offering (which was pretty much a strike) the Ump called it ball four, the raucous crowd erupted (as much as a crowd of 500 could) and he walked with the bases loaded to win the game 9-8.

Then one of the least proud moments of my life happened. I was dejected, spent and angry. I frustratedly kicked my glove like I was Ray Guy, over the backstop. A child of maybe 8-10 years old said "nice kick!" and I launched the loudest FU Bomb of my career, tossed the "Mike Vick one-fingered peace sign" at the stands and began to punch the fiberglassed benches in utter disgust and rage. If you've ever punched fiberglass, you know how it shatters and splinters into a mess.

People were becoming frightened and scared and lucky for me I had a very good friend that grabbed me and my stuff and took us back to my car where I proceeded to redecorate my car with knuckle dents to the hood. My buddy told me to calm down, I did what I could (my best) and it was "just a game".

I was starting to have my senses come back to me when he asked:

"Are you OK to drive, or do you want me to walk home?"

It's at moments like that you can clearly define the difference between a good friend and everyone else. Anyone else would have gotten a serious ass whoopin', whereas my good friend knew THAT was exactly what I needed.

To this day, it's still a funny line.

What's the point of this mess? In the heat of strenuous effort/battle/love and war, sometimes your best/better/good judgement flies out the window. I would NEVER EVER act like that again (and am still appalled that I DID act like that once). You never fully realize your worst capabilities until it's too late. If somebody, anybody would have made a move at me, I would have probably attacked them! I was a raging fool (and I am NOT proud of this)

I probably could have been arrested (for the destruction of public property, maybe even for assault for threatening the kid).

Delmon was 20 when his incident occurred, I was 20 too...

There has to be a place where we can allow people to "mess up" without labeling them "Messed Up". I feel Delmon Young deserves the chance to be considered human (vulnerable, fallable, unperfect) even though he was given beyond-human physical abilities. I give people the benefit of the doubt at least once.

If Delmon Young did what I did and he did what I did, would anyone ever care to know the difference?

Exhibit E
Racism

Look, I'm not one to call out the slightest controversy and slap the proverbial race card on it, but open your eyes a bit wider than uniform colors here. It's clear to me that there's some racism involved with public perception of Delmon Young. It sickens me that it's so apparent in "the world we live", "this day and age", whatever...

More than "Black man beats Whitey with a stick for once" jokes...

Delmon Young is percieved as being a doo-rag and gold chain wearing, gangsta wannabe hip-hop culture thug by far too many people whom have never even SEEN him! How many people NEVER watched the clip still called him "hip-hop thug" or more simply "dumb nigger"? How many people that "would never use the N-word" still think about him the same way whether they want to admit or not?

How many people hear the name "Delmon" and don't think "that's a black guy's name"? Or see a picture of him and envision meeting him in a dark alley. It truly doesn't matter to me personally what skin color a person has (name someone who got to choose), but I know there are people that feel this way. I have had people tell me "players like Delmon Young don't respect the game", "he's a ghetto punk" and other similar statements of blatent, overt ignorance.

Keep in mind that the people I have heard bad mouth Young 1) don't know him, 2) have never met him and 3) couldn't pick him out of a lineup if their life depended on it, but would just as easily bet their life that he is as likely to "be in a police lineup as a batting lineup"... huh?
We are SO trained in this society to have the headline tell the story and have the video "evidence" slam the gavel on the 'sentence'.

There is a fear in people that grows in the petri dish of ignorance. Racism is one thing, but so is ignoring racism. As much as I wish it couldn't be true, Don't double down on the ignorance.

I haven't met Delmon Young personally (yet), but I have a pretty good idea that he'll be different than I expect, different than you expect and different than the media expects me to expect. He might just be a "regular guy" in some respects!

...or maybe he'll be happy and jovial like O.J. Simpson...

Exhibit F
The Devil Rays Corallory

WHAT do you know about the Tampa Bay Devil Rays? Seriously? How can SO MANY people know next to nothing about the Devil Rays yet know what's beating inside of #26's jersey? From the time he was spending in the minors?

PUH-Leaze!

The day that all the smacked asses stop running their mouths about how they know everything about what they saw on SportsCenter one time will be the finest day of them all.
Playing professional baseball is a privilege not a right. Me thinks Delmon "gets" that concept. No worries here.from Manny..

Exhibit G
What lies ahead (emphasis on "lies")

For all the reasons stated above, I empathize with Delmon Damarcus Young. I can't help but feel sorry for how he has to handle a ration of B.S. (not blown saves) over an incident of such meaningless insignificance that has been blown out of proportion by idiots who can't conjure up a real story, fear, racism and ignorance

Delmon Young will need to have an MVP-like season or four before the journalists of the world will let the bat incident rest. Again, in the grand scheme of things (at least to me) it's the deadest story in Florida (hanging chads anyone?).

And GOD help us if even the slightest event conjures up the "incident". Delmon could be a saint for the rest of his career, if another player throws a bat, or hits an umpire GUESS whose name will be dragged through it....

In less than a month, the story will pop up again as the one year anniversary comes around (April 26th). Of course, no one will ask him about THIS season, or what he's doing NOW, they'll just want to pin Delmon down under that 28 second clip like that grainy book jacket flap can tell the whole story inside.

Maybe Delmon can learn some "bat control" and stop swinging at EVERYthing thrown his way, maybe mix in a walk every so often and the "witty" journalists can come up with some actually FUNNY headlines (now who's the funny one?)

Maybe he'll continue to be the free swinging slugger that got him to the bigs, I don't care. As long as he goes out there and plays baseball, he WILL have a great, incident-free career. And I'll be rooting the WHOLE time!

Of course, I'll be busy making my plans to visit Cooperstown in 20 or so years...

Go Devil Rays!

Raise or Raze the Rays - Episode One

by Bball3345, Davis21Wylie, and Manny Stiles

"Raise or Raze the Rays" - Episode One starring Armchair contributors Bball and Dice21Dub is yet another deluded concept from the 'Chair's resident whackjob.

In honor of my favorite homonym/antonym, Raise/Raze along with my favorite baseball team, this series will analyze data from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays through the sabermetrically tinted glasses of two of our favorite Chart Wizards/Stat Geeks a.k.a. "Neil" and "Tim", while ManRay a.k.a. "Erik" gets to interject his typical antisense. The series will run about once a month throughout the regular season, and maybe even a special "Post Season Edition" when the Devil Rays win the AL East.

Build 'em up? Or knock 'em down?

Enough tapyap... To the DATA, Statman!!!

Raise or Raze the Rays

Neil: Okay, Tim, let's get this show started...

Welcome to the inaugural edition of "Raise or Raze the Rays," a periodic column in which my colleague Tim and I, Neil, will aim our ever-growing arsenal of sabermetric weapons at the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. In this space, we'll dissect Tampa from practically every statistical angle, in the hope of learning something new that this guy can put to use. But will our boss, Mr. Kombol, like the results? Um... maybe. At the very least, stay tuned to see if this column is discontinued!

But, seriously, let's get the (B)ball rolling by taking a look at one of the D-Rays' primary strengths: their young talent base. As I noted here, we can all agree that the Rays have more than a few quality prospects on their roster, especially on offense -- Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, Jonny Gomes, Jorge Cantu, etc... Tampa had a profoundly horrible offense last season, but most of these guys were either hurt, suspended, or in the minors. So is there any hope for this O when (if?) they get their young core in the lineup full-time?

Tim: No doubt, Tampa has an outstanding crop of young offensive talent at the major league level and, even more amazingly, there is still more talent on the way. The scary thing is how all of these high-profile prospects could realistically flop.

They have four potential 20/20 guys, but none of them come without question marks. Carl Crawford, improving but yet to reach the "next level." Rocco Baldelli, torn ACL and Tommy John surgery. Delmon Young, attitude problems. B.J. Upton, can't play defense to save his life.
Baldelli is the most interesting to me, partly for being a non-pitcher and having TJ surgery. Last season, in his 92 games of rare health, Baldelli had a RC/27 of 7.08. Had he had enough bats to qualify, that would have ranked him in the top 20 in the AL. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) wasn't even that inflated either, at .338 compared to his career .333. His Line Drive percentage was at 15.6% compared to his career 16.3%. The most promising trend has been in his power; Baldelli's HR per Fly Ball rose from 7.2% in 2003 to 16.0% last season. At 25-years-old, don't you see him proving his past injuries were a fluke and leading the Tampa Bay offense?

Neil: I can definitely envision a situation in which Baldelli is the cornerstone of this team -- as a Vernon Wells-style two-way OF -- especially given the way his power finally came through last season. I mean, we know this guy is crazy talented: in high school, people were regularly comparing him to Joe DiMaggio, and his top comp for the last fully-healthy season he played (2003) was Tris Speaker. But I'm concerned that his past injuries weren't flukes. The offseason ACL tear? Well, maybe, but the elbow and leg/hamstring issues are troubling for a player of his age. He's still got that great speed, but players with histories of leg problems generally tend to lose it sooner rather than later. If he proves himself to be durable, though, I think they've potentially got one of the best CF in the American League.

As for the rest of this lineup, there's a lot of upside here. They shouldn't be scoring 4.25 runs per game, right? And if you were to look at a best-guess for their guys' production, it'd probably be:

No. Player Pos RC/G

--------------------------------------
1. Rocco Baldelli CF 6.2
2. Carl Crawford LF 6.3
3. Delmon Young RF 5.8
4. Jonny Gomes DH 5.8
5. Jorge Cantu 2B 4.9
6. Ty Wigginton 1B 5.3
7. B.J. Upton 3B 4.9
8. Dioner Navarro C 4.5
9. Ben Zobrist SS 4.5
--------------------------------------

Pretty solid, huh? But we've been saying that for the last few years, and someone has always gotten hurt, or underperformed, etc. The margin is paper-thin for them at this point -- somebody goes down or stops hitting, and suddenly you're seeing a lot of Damon Hollins again.
I think one of the key guys for them is actually Akinori Iwamura, the Japanese import. This team was giving infield PT to guys like Tomas Perez last season, so if Iwamura performs like he did overseas, it'll definitely give them some breathing room in terms of depth. How do think Iwamura will handle the transition to MLB?

Tim: Well, Iwamura is 28-years-old, which puts him right in the prime of his career. He has hit over .300, with OBP's a tad under .400 and slugging in the mid-.500s over the past three seasons in Japan. Baseball Prospectus calculates his EQA (Equivalent Average) over the past three seasons at .285, .295, and .293. If he had posted an EQA like those on this side of the ocean, only Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teahen, and Troy Glaus would have bested him in the AL. Personally, I see his EQA coming down due to the shift and the innacuracy of predicting between leagues. An EQA in the .270's with 20 HRs and a mid-.300's OBP seems about right. Production like that would make Iwamura an above-average third baseman and, at under $3 million per year, one heckuva bargain.

As far as I know, Iwamura has stayed healthy and has a solid reputation with the glove. He is capable of playing 2B or 3B, so this improves Tampa Bay's flexibility. Not to mention, Iwamura's bat would be even more of an advantage at 2B. Assuming Iwamura pans out, I see prospect Evan Longoria taking over 3B by season's end and Iwamura shifting over to second base, bumping Cantu out of the starting lineup.

Speaking of fielding, Tampa had serious issues last year on defense. Their Defensive Efficiency Ratio (the number of times they turned balls in play into outs) was a league-low .673. The difference between their Fielding Independent Pitching (4.86) and ERA (4.96) comes out to about an extra 15 runs over the course of a season. In other words, their defense easily cost the Rays a victory or two by itself. According to the HardballTimes fielding stats, the problem appeared to be on the ground, not in the air. The Rays' infield made 82! less outs than expected, while the outfield made 9 more than average. Playing Iwamura, Longoria and Ben Zobrist around the horn would go a long way toward fixing that problem. It also means that deciding to add the dreadful defense of B.J. Upton could further damage the pitcher's confidence in allowing groundballs. What do you think the Devil Rays should do with Upton? Should they try and get him at-bats in the infield, trade him, move him to center, or something entirely different?

Neil: I've always liked Upton, but having him in the infield is clearly unacceptable as long as he's going to do his "Chuck Knoblauch circa 1999" impression. The outfield would be a more appealing destination defensively, because he has loads of speed, but I wonder if his bat is strong enough to support the move (especially after last year's nightmarish .246/.302/.291 line). It's one thing for Alfonso Soriano to go from a defensive-liability IF to an MVP-caliber OF, because Soriano's hitting ability was never really in question -- we may have taken exception with his, um, lack of selectivity, but he always had good power and would at least hit for average.

Upton, on the other hand, has never really proven himself at all as a hitter at the major-league level; yes, his minor league translations have been good, but his career MLB line is .251/.312/.347 in 334 at-bats. At 22, it's not really time yet to give up on him as a player, but now is the time to make him an outfielder, because that defense at third (or short, or the infield in general) isn't getting any better.

But, you know, as bad as Tampa's defense was this past year, you still have to lay a lot of the blame for their 5.28 RA/G at the feet of their pitchers. If it weren't for Kansas City and Baltimore, this would have been the worst staff in the AL, a showing made worse by the fact that they had one of the game's brightest young pitching prospects headlining the rotation (for the first half of the season, at least). To be exact, their non-Kazmir ERA was 5.15. This is what makes the Devil Rays so frustrating: the good players on the team get hurt a lot, and that's not really something the organization can control, but there are contingency plans that don't have to include guys like Seth McClung, Casey Fossum and Doug Waechter -- pitchers who have "removed all doubt" about their suckitude by now.

The good news is that they have what many are calling the best farm system in MLB. With guys like James Shields, Jason Hammel, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Jacob McGee, and Jeremy Hellickson coming down the pipeline to join Kazmir, the staff looks like it should improve a lot in the next few years. Meanwhile, Young, Longoria, Elijah Dukes, and Reid Brignac will bolster an already-impressive core of young talent in the field. So, yeah, I like Tampa's future a lot, provided they don't screw things up on the development side. Of course, all of these guys are at least a year away from making an impact at the MLB level, so they're of little use to Joe Maddon & Co. right now. Given that, how do you see the 2007 Devil Rays performing? What are your best-case and worst-case scenarios for this upcoming season?

Tim: First, lets take a look at some of the overall team numbers from 2006 to see if there are any signs of hope.

----------------------------
Actual Record: 61-101
Pythagorean Record: 65-97
----------------------------

Last season, the DRays underperformed their Pythagorean Record by 4 games. So, lets make the assumption that they will over perform their Pythagorean record this season by the same amount.

-----------------------------------------
Batting Average: .255
BA w/ Runners in Scoring Position: .240
------------------------------------------

Also last season, the DRays performed 15 points of batting average worse with runners in scoring position then they performed on average. If this number corrects itself as well, they could be in for some more runs from better luck with men on base.

BaseballProspectus's PECOTA predicts the DRays to finish in 4th at 78-84. Lets assume that PECOTA's prediction is the Pythagorean Record for the Rays, since it is built on Runs Scored and Runs Allowed. If they best their Pythagorean Record by 4 this season, that puts them at 82-80. With the question marks all around the rotation, this is probably the best anyone can expect from them in the toughest division in baseball. However, young players, especially with the talent of the Devil Rays' youngsters, have a strong chance of outperforming any of their projections. Delmon Young, Ben Zobrist, and Akinori Iwamura could all outdo their projections by a win each, plus some other smaller additions from others. Finally, as a best-case scenario projection, I give the Devil Rays an 86-76 record, assuming a tad better luck and some big years from the talented prospects.

The worst case scenario is as dreadful as the best-case scenario is delightful. For starters, Rocco Baldelli could go down with yet another injury, leaving the spot open to probably B.J. Upton or Elijah Dukes, both with issues of their own. Iwamura could fail to make the transition from Japan to America, acting as a sinkhole in the lineup until Longoria replaces him. Jonny Gomes and Greg Norton could provide Replacement Level or worse offense at DH. Delmon Young could flop or explode and be suspended for a substantial part of the season. Jorge Cantu could join Norton and Gomes around Replacement Level again on offense. Ty Wigginton could prove last season's improved power was merely a fluke (although, the numbers point toward it being real). Dioner Navarro could postpone his breakout yet another year, being just one of multiple Replacement Level hitters in the Tampa Bay starting lineup. Scott Kazmir could get hurt again, leaving the rotation a complete mess. None of these possibilities are outlandish and most of them have happened before. If all or most of these come true, the Devil Rays will endure enormous struggles trying to get out of the 100-loss zone.

In my AL East Preview, I predict the DRays at 75-87. No one can doubt the Devil Rays have a talented, young offense that is ready to start scoring runs in bunches as soon as this year. There are even a handful of useful arms in the bullpen. Tampa Bay has a legitimate, yet fragile, ace in Kazmir and a capable #2 in Shields. If they were in the AL West or NL Central, this team could legitimately contend with a few lucky breaks. Unfortunately, the AL East is still a two-team show. It seems likely the Devil Rays will fall somewhere in between the best and worst cases, but my money has them ending up closer to 86 wins than 62.

Neil: Wow, that best-case is way more optimistic than mine would be -- in my AL preview, I projected that they would score 4.83 runs per game, allow 5.55 runs per game, and finish at 70-92, last in the AL East. That projection may be overly pessimistic for the pitching staff, though; after all, they allowed only 5.28 runs per game last year, and that was with Kazmir injured. So let's say they allow 5.10 RPG and score 4.90 RPG... that works out to 78-84, which I would consider to be their absolute best-case scenario, seeing as how they've never notched more than 70 wins in their entire 9-year existence. (By the way, Tim, I think assuming that they'll overperform their pythagorean expectation by 4 just because they underperformed by that much last year is a bit of a misapplication of the Plexiglas Principle -- with a little of the gambler's fallacy thrown in to boot -- but I digress...)

Tampa's worst-case scenario would have to be a repeat of last year's 61-101 record. And the odds are against the offense collapsing that badly again, so I would expect them to finish with 80 wins before I'd expect another less than 65 wins campaign. Overall, I'd call for a mean projection of 70-75 wins -- which would happen to be their best record ever. It would also represent real progress for the franchise, especially given their prospects on the way from the farm. I should note, however, that asking for anything more than beating out Baltimore for 4th place in the East is merely a pipe dream.


Tim: Before I wrap-up our first edition of "Raise or Raze the Rays," I want to plead guilty to both slightly misusing the Plexiglas Principle and the gambler's fallacy. I realize that the Devil Rays aren't guaranteed by any measure to outperform their Pythagorean Record by 4 just because they underperfomed by 4 in 2006. I used the number 4 merely as a hypothetical, slightly flawed, best-case scenario. That aside, Neil and I look forward to scrutinizing and praising Manny Stiles' new favorite team all year long. Now, if only Spring Training would end, so the 2007 Devil Rays can show everyone what they are made of, good or bad.



Manny's Post Script

Sounds like this episode rates as a RAISE the Rays!

Great job, fellas! Yes, it is a team full of hope, prospect and talent. Does ANY team in baseball have a wider discrepency between their theoretical "upside" and their expected "downside"? Does ANY team in baseball have more former highly rated prospects on it's roster?

So for personal reasons (because I said so), I will trust ONLY the upper limit on most of the data provided, and I feel that many of the projections could easily be exceeded (in my opinion, Delmon Young will have a monster year, B.J. Upton will focus on playing baseball not head games and Carl Crawford will be... well, Carl Crawford!)

The lineup seems as if they could explode at times and do some damage, for sure. You guys took into account many things but I'm glad you stuck more to the batting side of the team.

All Devil Rays fans know this season will hinge on the pitching and defense. After all, 90% of baseball is pitching and defense and the other half is offense, right? And the pitching staff, regardless of the data you could find/conjure/skew is without a doubt the BIG question (especially the bullpen). Here's a trick for you... I'll give you Scott Kazmir and Jamie Shields, now name 3 other Devil Rays pitchers....

Waiting...

Waiting...

Beuler?....

Regardless, I am VERY excited for the season to start (so I can go bash D21Dub's BoSox) and I truly feel that this is the year (the magical 10th season of Devil Rays baseball) that they actually crack the .500 plateau.

That being said as I am dead serious about my prediction. I'll gladly submit myself to drug testing to prove it to the jackasses out there (admittedly, I might not do as "well" on a thorough mental evaluation)!

Until next time, Go Devil Rays!

Manny Stiles' Bon Mots

Everyone knows I like myself. If you were me, you would too...

French for "Good Words" or Stilese for "Links I've compiled to articles that say good things about me"

The official media recognizes Manny (as a jester perhaps?)

I'm a hero, dammit! Where's MY parade?

When it's for charity, it's not called an "investment", but O.K.

I was misquoted, but I stand by ALL my misquotes

And the online world took notice, too! (Ok, barely a glance)

The Deadspin Article that got most people's attention

Rays Index breaks the news - by The Professor

My elevator "might" be broken, but I WAS serious!!!

The guys at DRaysBay took a nice angle - They played it like... "Yeah so..." (they were the first to contact me, so it was old news to them)

A Devil Rays preview by one of ArmchairGM most respected contributors, Kelsdad

Ha ha... the didn't buy me, but they did win me over!

Can't say much for 28 other teams, but at least Nats fans aren't totally asleep

Yes, I AM a Delmon Young fan!!!

I get headlines over Curt Schilling!!!

Under March 7 - the obligatory "there goes $ for a fifth starter joke!

Under MLB - Dan, where does freaking blog begin and freeky blogger end?


'til later.... Be good, or failing that, be safe!

The Great Joltin' Joe and Teddy Ballgame debate.. Part I

It started out as a simple heated argument and escalated into a tussle.

Propose the "right" idea to a close minded drunk with a short temper and you could end up on the bleeding edge of all that's happening in broken glass technology. Exchange the words "close minded drunk with a short temper" to "passionate Yankee fan" and it shares the same consequences. You could see my quandry.

I don't think Joe DiMaggio was as great as everyone remembers him being. I thought that he was a very good player (way better than Derek Jeter, mind you) but not quite as great as his contemporaries (like Derek Jeter). Not only that but DiMaggio had THE cat (Marilyn Monroe) in the bag and he let her go (to a writer!) or shall I say couldn't ''satisfy'' the agreement (sound familiar to Mr. Jeter?)

The patrons of what shall always be remembered as "The Bar I Will Gladly Avoid From Now On." were not pleased with my rhetoric, my verification and corrections of their referenced data nor my whimisical attitude towards the Legend of Joe D.

Furthermore if you state that "Ted Williams was better and I can prove it over and over with fact, statistic and all other valid forms of authenticated quantities", they start to think of you as less of an a-hole and more of "worse than than an a-hole". Well in the "right" neighborhood you're just asking for a wicked awesome fight, BoSox Boy!

But that's not what I was saying to the clench-fisted, ultra-spittle endowed master of Bill Cowher impersonations. I was saying that if DiMaggio didn't play in the right hander's cavern of Yankee Stadium and if Ted wouldn't have had the Monster, or if both of them never missed any time due to service time. And on and on and on, we'll never know! There were so many variables!

I started sensing the aura of more of "them" enclosing around less of "us", with the "us" being me... It wasn't just a random conversation bashing the Yankees at a bar with a guy that looked like his blood type is 10W-40 anymore. It was a tripped trigger for a guy that wasn't satisfied with an overall lack of violence in this particular rendition of Tuesday Happy Hour. He had a glint in his eyes you usually only see in tower climbing snipers, long-term residents of padded rooms and the typical unibomber wannabes. And this emepher wanted to fight me!

He's pushing 50 lookin' like he's pushing 70, had a rough life and a rougher day. Maybe his wised up and girl left him, maybe his dog died, maybe his second favorite shotgun busted today while he was using it to fix a flat on his pickup, maybe all of the above stereotypes and more are true. Maybe he was just a psychotic Yankees fan who's existence relied on the simple notion that Joe DiMaggio was an annointed Saint.

And normally, why would I be afraid of this guy? I'm not a violent person. I'm waaay bigger than this dude, I'd crush him if need be! But his 17 or so friends don't appreciate a few things about me:

a) it WOULD be fun kicking my ass, eh?
b) they don't like my so-called resemblance to that "Jolly Green Giant feller"
c) I keep saying the wrong things about the Yankees (nothing good)
d) I keep saying these things to the one guy who REALLY doesn't need to hear it. (drunk angry folk)

But logic fails to cool the boiling heat of rage. Often, it enrages the fumous, impatient and non-rational anger MORE!

"I said you were WRONG! How dare you prove that you're right??!?!?"

For once, I felt the fear that I wasn't going to talk my way out of this one, this time... it was reckoning time; the inevitable day of Manny's comeuppance! I knew only had one possible course of action that would possibly save my "oily hide" from some unwanted facial reconstruction.

I told them I was a Devil Rays fan.